Peter Schwartz

World-Renowned Futurist and Strategist

BIG IDEAS

• Inevitable Surprises
  Peter shows how the surprising changes and forces shaping the 21st century can be better understood, planned for, and controlled. He explores the big geopolitical and geoeconomic pressure points in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, the outlook for continued faith-based conflicts, the promise of regenerative medicine and a new scientific revolution, the real threat of global climate change, energy shortfalls and price shocks, pandemics and global health, the end of retirement in developed countries, and other forces at play. In many cases, Peter asserts, leadership can do a much better job of preparing and responding to these “inevitable surprises.”
• Message From the Biological Future
  Peter sends a report from the year 2050, well into what he calls the Biological Age. He elaborates on the major advancements in health, life extension, human physical and mental performance, and related sciences that allow him, at age 105, to boast that ‘his tennis game has never been better.’ While the world of 2050 is not free of many of the problems plaguing us in 2007, such as the effects of global warming, poverty and political and social divisions, human beings, on average, are experiencing longer, more fulfilling and wealthier lives. Thanks to the farsighted policies of the pioneering governments and companies at the beginning of the 21st century, the perceived risks of these technologies—ethical and moral, as well as political and economic—were shown to be largely trivial and transitory, when compared to the enormous benefits that accrued to mankind. Otherwise we would have entered another scientific Dark Age, and not much would have changed. So, thank you, people of 2007!
• Exploring the Future Impacts of Global Climate Change
  A world renowned scenario thinker, Peter has decades of experience working on the critical issues and uncertainties of climate change. He built one of the first global climate models when he founded and led SRI’s Environment Center, served on Bill Clinton’s President’s Council on Sustainable Development, and has authored multiple reports on the subject for corporate, NGO, and government clients. Peter highlights new opportunities—as well as risks—that decision makers in business, policy and security communities will face because of climate change, both immediately and in the future. Peter helps audiences understand how and why future climate change should guide today’s decisions in areas such as: integrating climate change into business strategies; anticipating new risks; climate change as a platform for corporate growth & economic development, and new security threats and vulnerability for governments and businesses.

SNAPSHOT BIO

Peter Schwartz is co-founder and current chairman of the Global Business Network (GBN), the world’s preeminent member organization focused on scenario thinking and planning, where he leads programs for corporations, governments, and non-profit institutions. His current research and scenario work encompasses energy resources and the environment, technology, life sciences, telecommunications, media and entertainment, aerospace, and national security. A prolific author, Peter’s most recent book, Inevitable Surprises, offers a provocative look at the complex forces at play in the world today and their implications for business and society. His first book, The Art of the Long View, is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning and has been translated into multiple languages. Peter addresses many different audiences in corporate board rooms, at conferences on issues such as global warming and human life extension, and at the World Economic Forum. He led the scenario team at Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1980s, where many of the scenario tools were pioneered. He has even lent his futurist skills to Hollywood as a script consultant on such films as The Minority Report, Deep Impact, Sneakers, and War Games.

A Closer Look at Peter

FOCUS AREAS
What's on Peter's current research agenda?

• Exploring emerging energy trends and scenarios, something Peter has done for over 25 years, first at Royal Dutch/Shell and later at GBN and Monitor. The consensus view is likely to be very wrong, he believes. His expertise covers the future of oil, gas, coal, nuclear and alternative energy sources, the continued strong demand for energy, and the accumulating impact on global climate change.
• Global Climate Change: Peter lays out his thinking on two possible paths for climate change. The first is where global warming rises gradually, the consensus scenario for the next century, with enough time built in for mankind to make the necessary adjustments to consumption, alternative sources, etc. The second, he argues, is entirely more sinister: abrupt change in either direction, with more dire consequences for civilization and conflict over the remaining arable land, access to water, etc. In either case, he argues for decisive policy measures to confront global climate change.
• The new bioscience revolution and its huge potential to extend productive human life. Peter talks about the aggregate impact of simultaneous advances in genomics, stem cell therapies, nutrition, regeneration, and reversing the effects of aging. He foresees a time when humans routinely live past 100, indeed well into their second century at a high level of performance. He articulates the infrastructure, policy, and legal environment needed to ensure that the full impact of these technologies and treatments bear fruit, and the emerging global competition for advantage in these fields.

ENGAGEMENTS
How have other organizations utilized Peter's expertise, and what's ahead on his schedule?

Peter’s presentation engagements span a wide spectrum. He addresses business executives and government leaders on topics such as energy resources and the environment, technology, life sciences, telecommunications, media and entertainment, aerospace, and national security.

Peter has presented to:

• the World Affairs Council (about the future of the Middle East);
• the Levin Graduate Institute of International Relations and Commerce (about the evolving global talent pool);
• the Martin Institute at Oxford University regarding the opportunities and challenges of technologies for life extension and enhancement in the next fifty years; and
• the executive leadership of corporations and not-for-profit entities in the U.S., Europe, and Asia about the complex forces at play in the world today and the implications for business and society.

SPHERE OF INFLUENCE
Who shapes Peter's thinking and inspires his work?

At the top of Peter's list is Pierre Wack, the founder of scenario planning at Shell, but not far behind are colleagues Jay Ogilvy, Stewart Brand, and Napier Collyns. Donald Michael (The Unprepared Society: Planning for a Precarious Future) was critical to setting him on his path and Nathan Rosenberg and L.E. Birdzell Jr. (How the West Grew Rich: The Economic Transformation of the Industrial World) influended his thinking on the impact of technology on growth and prosperity.

RECOMMENDED READING
What's on Peter's must-read list?

Several books have been important, including The End of Faith: Religion, Terror, and the Future of Reason (by Sam Harris), Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy (by Moises Naim), and The Revenge of Gaia (by James Lovelock).

He also took great delight from a pair of science fiction novels by Dan Simmons: Illium and its’ sequel, Olympos.

MIND FUEL
Which blogs, web sites, and industry events does Peter tap into to feed his mind and fuel his creativity?

The most valuable meeting he attends every year is the World Economic Forum at Davos. But occasional visits to TED and the FORTUNE-sponsored Brainstorm conferences are “worth it.” Most recently, he attended the first Blindside event (organized by Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by the new journal The American Interest), and it proved to be quite interesting (http://www.the-american-interest.com/cms/ae/).

As for online, he is a Wikipedia junky. And Google Earth leads him to new insights every day.

OUTREACH
What are Peter's pressing questions, and on which topics does he seek your feedback?

Currently, Peter is focused on four critical questions:

• Can we avoid major wars? Namely, will great power rivalry between the U.S., Europe, and China take us to war? Does the Islamic civil war threaten to become a bigger war?
• Will the world be able to sustain relatively high economic growth (4%+)?
• If we sustain economic growth, will the fruits of that growth be widely spread or captured mainly by the already well off?
• If vast numbers of poor get rich, is it possible to do so without destroying the earth’s ecosystems?